I hear people complaining about how robots and AI will take over their jobs.
What they don't realize is that it's a good thing the "AI robot workers" are coming. Because soon, much sooner than most believe, half the world will be in diapers. A world of old people who need to be taken for, with no one to take care of them.
We're not making nearly enough kids to do the work without the aforementioned silicon help, and we'll need to increase productivity even further. Not only will there be fewer people, but with longer lifespans, there'll be mostly old people.
I think we'll be hella grateful for our new robot friends. ;)
Still, its productivity increases on the shoulders of human labour. It will make human labour more substitutable and increase cost pressure on wages. Good for rich retirees, bad for low net worth young professionals who cannot offer capital to buy those robots, only their labour. Hence, if we don't get a massive deflationary asset-bubble popping crash soon, how is this not going to drive inequality even further?
Seems like the robots are also destroying the American dream, the ability to work yourself up from nothing, because it shifts more negotiating power towards capital income away from labour income. Either you're born rich via parents, or you'll never be rich. It's what Yanis Varoufakis calls "Technofeudalism"
The short answer is that systems are probably going to have to change to adapt to the new reality, whether that's UBI, some sort of ownership (I've seen some interesting ideas floating around), or some other form we can't see just yet.
I wouldn't worry about robots destroying labor because as I look at all of history, the same trends emerge. People are afraid of new technology and expect it to destroy jobs and end the world, figuratively speaking.
Think about the massive productivity increase computers, IT, robotics, cars, planes, and the internet have made. Yet, we're at record employment numbers in 2024. By all accounts, we should all be eating bugs homeless on the streets, yet we're collectively doing quite well. Productivity went up 1 million fold, but we still have jobs.
I suspect something similar will happen with AI and robotics. The world will change, sure, but we will adapt as a society.
The asset bubble bursting is long overdue, on that we agree (because it's artificially kept alive).
Some interesting stats there, Raul.
I hear people complaining about how robots and AI will take over their jobs.
What they don't realize is that it's a good thing the "AI robot workers" are coming. Because soon, much sooner than most believe, half the world will be in diapers. A world of old people who need to be taken for, with no one to take care of them.
We're not making nearly enough kids to do the work without the aforementioned silicon help, and we'll need to increase productivity even further. Not only will there be fewer people, but with longer lifespans, there'll be mostly old people.
I think we'll be hella grateful for our new robot friends. ;)
My comment above was meant to be an answer to your comment, but Substack doesnt allow me to post long answers..
Still, its productivity increases on the shoulders of human labour. It will make human labour more substitutable and increase cost pressure on wages. Good for rich retirees, bad for low net worth young professionals who cannot offer capital to buy those robots, only their labour. Hence, if we don't get a massive deflationary asset-bubble popping crash soon, how is this not going to drive inequality even further?
Seems like the robots are also destroying the American dream, the ability to work yourself up from nothing, because it shifts more negotiating power towards capital income away from labour income. Either you're born rich via parents, or you'll never be rich. It's what Yanis Varoufakis calls "Technofeudalism"
The short answer is that systems are probably going to have to change to adapt to the new reality, whether that's UBI, some sort of ownership (I've seen some interesting ideas floating around), or some other form we can't see just yet.
I wouldn't worry about robots destroying labor because as I look at all of history, the same trends emerge. People are afraid of new technology and expect it to destroy jobs and end the world, figuratively speaking.
Think about the massive productivity increase computers, IT, robotics, cars, planes, and the internet have made. Yet, we're at record employment numbers in 2024. By all accounts, we should all be eating bugs homeless on the streets, yet we're collectively doing quite well. Productivity went up 1 million fold, but we still have jobs.
I suspect something similar will happen with AI and robotics. The world will change, sure, but we will adapt as a society.
The asset bubble bursting is long overdue, on that we agree (because it's artificially kept alive).
It would be interesting to view each of these graphs in their GDP per capita version.
Curious if the US manufacturing GDP chart is inflation adjusted?
“Current Dollars” - I assume it is.
Love your work, Raoul. I and other millennials appreciate what you’re doing. Keep it up mate